Prediction

Every number on this page was measured when it was built, against the 2,545-show moe. corpus running through 2026-08-01. Nothing here is carried over from a previous run.

What this is

The obvious way to predict a show is to go and find a schedule of upcoming ones. That is not what this does, and skipping it is the point: predicting is blinding, and a corpus can be blinded at any date. Hide everything past a cutoff, predict the next night, reveal that one night, grade it, advance the cutoff. The corpus supplies the “upcoming” dates and the answer key, so the whole facility can be wired end to end and shown to be honest without acquiring a single new source.

The one thing the predictor is told about the night it is grading is how many songs were played. That is a lookahead of exactly one integer, and it is deliberate: asking for more guesses than there were answers inflates recall for free. A live prediction has no such number, which is the open question this slice does not answer.

How it did

The next night (2026-08-02)

Not a scheduled show — the earliest date the corpus does not already hold. The date comes from the data and never from the clock, so this page says the same thing whenever it is built.

Constructed set

Yellow Tigers, 32 Things, St. Augustine, Rebubula, Buster, Wormwood > Giants, Band in the Sky, In Stride, Tomorrow Is Another Day

Encore

Immigrant Song

Every song’s chance, top 30

A chance is the share of simulated nights the song turned up in. It is a stated probability, which is the only reason calibration can be measured at all.