beta — not linked from anywhere

The Scorecard

30 guesses a night, 12 times over, scored.

Every number on this page was measured when it was built, against the 2,545-show moe. corpus running through 2026-08-01. Nothing is carried over from a previous run.

What this is

The model picks the 30 songs it thinks are most likely for a night, and it picks them 12 separate times — once from each of the 12 shows before it, working forward. Every one of those vantage points is strictly earlier than the night being guessed at. So the page answers two questions at once: how many of the guesses landed, and whether the model knew early or worked it out at the last minute.

Where the boundary is. Everything scored on this page has already happened, and each night was predicted only from shows dated strictly before it — so the boundary is not a line anyone drew on a chart, it is the rule the whole walk obeys. Past the last show the corpus holds there are 17 announced nights that have not been played. Those are forecasts. Nothing grades them, they are counted in none of the numbers above, and they are a harder guess than any scored night beside them: a scored night tells the model how many songs to draw, and an unplayed one cannot.

How it did

songs picked a night30the shortlist, 12 times over per night

nights scored362026-03-26 onward

of the set, called45%220 of the 485 songs actually played

calibration0.70220 hits against 314 forecast

guesses made43236 nights × up to 12 vantage points

Every night, scored

Orange is how much of each set the model named. Violet and teal are the point of the chart: violet is the hit rate the confidences forecast, teal is the rate that landed. Where violet rides above teal, the odds ran hot.

share of the set we namedhit rate we forecasthit rate that landedhover a night for its numbers · click to open its card

Across these 36 nights the model called 220 of 485 songs played, and its own confidences claimed 314. That is a calibration of 0.70 — it overstates itself by about 30%. The accuracy line is deliberately low and restless. A model marching toward 100% here would be a model that had learned the answers rather than the band.

How much better than chance

A hit rate on its own means nothing — it only means something next to what it is being compared against. So here are three things to compare it to, from the easiest to beat to the hardest.

active repertoire	pool	blind chance	always the hits	the model	vs chance	vs the hits	skill
played in the last 2 years	246	10.8%	34.0%	45.4%	4.22×	1.33×	17.2%
played in the last 3 years	297	9.1%	35.3%	45.4%	4.99×	1.29×	15.6%
played in the last 5 years	385	7.0%	36.5%	45.4%	6.44×	1.24×	14.0%

The honest number is the second-to-last column, not the sixth. Beating a blind draw by 4.2–6.4× sounds impressive and is close to meaningless: a blind draw assumes every song is equally likely, and the gap between it and simply naming the most-played songs is the measure of how wrong that assumption is. The comparison that costs something is against always guess the hits, and there the model is worth 1.24–1.33×. Put another way, it recovers 14%–17% of the songs that baseline missed.

Whether a song counts as still being in the rotation has no correct answer, and it pushes the two comparisons opposite ways — a wider repertoire makes a blind draw look worse while giving the hits-only baseline more to work with. That is why all three spans are above rather than the flattering one.

Yes, a random guess could theoretically nail a whole show. The biggest set in this window was 2026-07-12, 10 songs, drawn from a repertoire of 265. The chance that 30 random picks contain every one of them is about 7.6 × 10^-11 — once in 1.9 × 10⁸ years at 70 shows a year, which is something like 1.3 × 10^-2 times the age of the universe. Possible. Not a rival.

What the sigma count is worth. The model sits 34 standard deviations above blind drawing, which settles the question of coincidence and settles nothing else. With two thousand songs on the line, statistical significance is free; every number worth arguing about is in the table.

Scoring the confidences, not just the names

A hit count throws away half of what the model publishes: every pick carries a stated probability. Scored as probabilities across all 9,177 song-nights in the repertoire, against a baseline that just states each song’s long-run rate. Lower Brier is better; skill is the share of the baseline’s error removed.

	Brier	skill vs long-run rates	reliability calibration · lower better	resolution tells nights apart · higher better
the shortlist, read literally unlisted songs = will not happen	0.0484	-1.8%	0.0019	0.0035
the same ranking, backed off unlisted songs = their usual rate	0.0479	-0.8%	0.0016	0.0036
long-run rates alone nobody’s model	0.0475	—	0.0000	0.0023

The model does not beat the do-nothing forecast on probabilities, scoring -0.8% even read charitably. It wins on hit rate and loses here, which means it ranks better than it estimates: useful for choosing what to name, not yet for saying how likely any of it is.

Reliability and resolution are different failures, and only this split tells them apart. A forecast giving every song the same probability every night would be near-perfectly calibrated and completely useless — resolution is the column that catches it, and it is precisely what a calibration ratio cannot see. The model’s resolution of 0.0036 against the baseline’s 0.0023 is the part that says it distinguishes one night from another at all.

How much the list moved

Each night was guessed at 12 times. This is how far the shortlist moved at each of those vantage points, plotted on the date the guess was made. One show is a vantage point for several nights after it, so each point averages every night that looked back to it and the shading is their spread. Click a date to open that night in the board below.

average turnover at that syncshaded: the spread across the nights that sync looked ahead to · dashed: 44% overall

The list never stops moving. 0 of 36 nights had settled before their last guess: on the rest, every additional show changed the membership of the top 30. Turnover between consecutive guesses averages 44%. And it is not confined to the tail. The rank-weighted distance between the last two guesses is 0.47, near enough the same number, so the movement reaches the ranks the model is most confident about rather than churning harmlessly at the bottom.

The last 20 nights, one column each, plus the 17 still to come

The final shortlist for each night, with the songs that actually played picked out in teal and the ones it never named listed at the foot of the card. Scrolls sideways, and opens on the seam between what has been played and what has not. The 17 violet cards on the right have not happened yet: those are forecasts, with nothing to grade them against.

● played

2026-05-23

60% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called5/8

expected25%

actual17%

called 5 of 8 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Yellow Tigers0.368—

2In Stride0.354—

3Ups and Downs0.336—

4Kyle's Song0.298▲1

5Bat Country0.296▲25

6Buster0.292▼2

7Plane Crash0.288▲8

8Wind It Up0.276▲12

9Moth0.266▲8

10Recreational Chemistry0.266—

11Ricky Marten0.262▼4

12Band in the Sky0.260▼1

13Billy Goat0.256NEW

14Meat0.250▼1

15Blue Jeans Pizza0.248▼7

16Captain America0.246▲2

17Four0.244▲12

18George0.244▲3

19Okayalright0.240▲3

20Mexico0.234▼6

21It0.226NEW

2232 Things0.222NEW

23Puebla0.218NEW

24The Pit0.218NEW

25Tambourine0.214NEW

26Downward Facing Dog0.208NEW

27Spine of a Dog0.208▼18

28Bullet0.202NEW

29Timmy Tucker0.200NEW

30Haze0.192▼5

missed: Seat of My Pants, The Ghost of Ralph's Mom, Water

● played

2026-06-11

64% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called6/10

expected27%

actual20%

called 6 of 10 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1In Stride0.366—

2Buster0.354▲6

3Kyle's Song0.354▲2

4Band in the Sky0.338—

5Ups and Downs0.330▼3

6Meat0.318▲5

7Recreational Chemistry0.298▲3

8Downward Facing Dog0.286▲12

9Ricky Marten0.278▲8

10The Pit0.274▲9

11Spine of a Dog0.272▲1

12George0.266▲12

13Puebla0.264NEW

14Blue Jeans Pizza0.260▲1

15Wind It Up0.260▲13

16Rebubula0.258NEW

17Captain America0.256▲1

18Timmy Tucker0.254NEW

19Mexico0.252▼3

20Bullet0.250NEW

21Plane Crash0.250▼14

2232 Things0.244▼1

23Head0.242NEW

24Okayalright0.238▼15

25Haze0.232NEW

26New Hope for the New Year0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.228▼13

28Tambourine0.226▼3

29Giants0.220NEW

30Lazarus0.212▼3

missed: Crab Eyes, Tailspin, Tomorrow Is Another Day, Tubing the River Styx

● played

2026-06-12

60% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called6/13

expected29%

actual20%

called 6 of 13 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1In Stride0.414—

2Band in the Sky0.392▲3

3Downward Facing Dog0.364▲9

4Buster0.362▼2

5Kyle's Song0.346▼1

6Plane Crash0.340▼3

732 Things0.322▲11

8Blue Jeans Pizza0.312▲12

9Rebubula0.308▲2

10Ricky Marten0.282▲15

11Lazarus0.280▲5

12Wind It Up0.280▼4

13Okayalright0.278▲2

14Recreational Chemistry0.278▲10

15Spine of a Dog0.276▲2

16Bullet0.268NEW

17Brent Black0.264▲12

18George0.264▲8

19Yellow Tigers0.264NEW

20Happy Hour Hero0.260▲7

21Timmy Tucker0.256▲1

22Silver Sun0.254NEW

23Tambourine0.254▼4

24New Hope for the New Year0.252▼1

25Meat0.248▼16

26Bring You Down0.246NEW

27Mexico0.240▼13

28Not Coming Down0.236NEW

29Bat Country0.234NEW

30Threw It All Away0.234NEW

missed: Captain America, I Wanna Be Sedated, Life During Wartime, New York City, Ophelia, The Silent Type, Where Does the Time Go?

● played

2026-06-13

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called4/12

expected28%

actual13%

called 4 of 12 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1In Stride0.428▲1

2Recreational Chemistry0.348▲8

3Rebubula0.324▲13

4Timmy Tucker0.322▲9

5Kyle's Song0.318▲1

6Mexico0.318▲24

7Downward Facing Dog0.312—

8Meat0.312▲10

932 Things0.284▲2

10Lazarus0.278▼2

11Ricky Marten0.276▲11

12Wind It Up0.276▼3

13Moth0.274NEW

14Bring You Down0.266NEW

15Okayalright0.266▲9

16New Hope for the New Year0.264▲4

17Four0.262NEW

18Spine of a Dog0.258▲1

19Bullet0.256▼4

20Mar De Ma0.256▼8

21Water0.254NEW

22Wormwood0.252NEW

23George0.250▼9

24Brent Black0.248▲2

25Giants0.246NEW

26Silver Sun0.246NEW

27Blue Jeans Pizza0.244▼22

28Hi & Lo0.242NEW

29Head0.240—

30Not Coming Down0.238NEW

missed: (missing), ATL, All Roads Lead to Home, Happy Hour Hero, Location: ADA Section, Locomotive Breath, Seat of My Pants, Sensory Deprivation Bank

● played

2026-06-14

60% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called7/15

expected29%

actual23%

called 7 of 15 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Downward Facing Dog0.358▲3

2Kyle's Song0.356▲1

3Meat0.354▲2

432 Things0.352▲12

5Giants0.342▲24

6Recreational Chemistry0.342▼4

7Mexico0.326▲4

8Timmy Tucker0.314▲5

9Brent Black0.312▲19

10Wormwood0.304—

11New Hope for the New Year0.302▲12

12Okayalright0.296▲2

13Ricky Marten0.296▼4

14Moth0.292▲7

15Silver Sun0.292▼3

16Tailspin0.286NEW

17George0.282▼9

18Wind It Up0.276▼11

19Puebla0.270NEW

20Three Eyed Serpent0.270NEW

21Billy Goat0.268NEW

22Tambourine0.266NEW

23Water0.266NEW

24The Pit0.264NEW

25Bring You Down0.258▲5

26Mar De Ma0.258▼9

27Bullet0.254▼12

28Yellow Tigers0.252NEW

29Head0.250NEW

30Ups and Downs0.250▼3

missed: Fuck Her Gently, Guitar & Vocals, In the Kitchen, Not Coming Down, She Sends Me, Space Truckin', Spine of a Dog, Young Lust

● played

2026-06-17

60% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called3/13

expected29%

actual10%

called 3 of 13 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Bat Country0.380NEW

2Giants0.370▲2

3Timmy Tucker0.352▲13

4Recreational Chemistry0.344▲5

5Yellow Tigers0.342NEW

6Ups and Downs0.308▲7

7Brent Black0.304▲5

8Buster0.304NEW

9Mexico0.302▲2

10Band in the Sky0.290NEW

11George0.288▼3

12Tailspin0.286▲13

13Wormwood0.282▲7

14Puebla0.276▲5

15Ricky Marten0.276▲8

16Water0.274▲10

17Silver Sun0.268▼11

18The Pit0.268NEW

19Bullet0.266NEW

20Plane Crash0.266NEW

21Lazarus0.264▼3

22In Stride0.262NEW

23Moth0.260▼13

24Tomorrow Is Another Day0.260NEW

25Head0.258▲5

26It0.250▲3

27Crab Eyes0.248NEW

28New Hope for the New Year0.248▼14

29Captain America0.238NEW

30Jazz Wank0.234NEW

missed: Cathedral, Cut the Cable, Eminence Front, Gone, Hi & Lo, Living Again, Nebraska, Old Things, The Ghost of Ralph's Mom, Where Does the Time Go?

● played

2026-06-18

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called5/11

expected28%

actual17%

called 5 of 11 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Bat Country0.368—

2Giants0.360▲1

3Yellow Tigers0.354▼1

4Recreational Chemistry0.346▲1

5George0.326▲5

6In Stride0.314▲18

7Ups and Downs0.310—

8Mexico0.302▲17

9Buster0.296▼5

10Puebla0.292▲7

11Wormwood0.282▲11

12Lazarus0.280▼1

13New Hope for the New Year0.274▲7

14Band in the Sky0.272▼6

15Timmy Tucker0.268▼9

16Billy Goat0.266—

17Tailspin0.264▼5

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.252NEW

19Head0.250NEW

20Plane Crash0.250▲10

21Four0.246NEW

22Bullet0.244▲7

23The Pit0.244▼2

24Brent Black0.242▼5

25Seat of My Pants0.242NEW

26Ricky Marten0.234▼12

27Rebubula0.230NEW

28Captain America0.226▼19

29Bring You Down0.220NEW

30St. Augustine0.220NEW

missed: Crushing, Don't Fuck With Flo, Jazz Cigarette, Mar De Ma, Piranhas, Reelin' in the Years

● played

2026-06-19

46% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called7/11

expected28%

actual23%

called 7 of 11 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Giants0.394▲1

2Buster0.360▲7

3Band in the Sky0.340▲11

4In Stride0.326▲2

5Timmy Tucker0.316▲10

6Ups and Downs0.310▲1

7Puebla0.308▲3

8Rebubula0.294▲19

9Four0.286▲12

10Tailspin0.286▲7

11Tomorrow Is Another Day0.274NEW

12Ricky Marten0.272▲14

13Brent Black0.270▲11

14Wormwood0.270▼3

15Head0.268▲4

16Mexico0.264▼8

17Lazarus0.260▼5

18Downward Facing Dog0.258NEW

19Billy Goat0.256▼3

20Seat of My Pants0.256▲5

21Bring You Down0.248▲8

22Meat0.246NEW

23Plane Crash0.244▼3

24Captain America0.242▲4

25Blue Jeans Pizza0.240▼7

26St. Augustine0.240▲4

27Bullet0.238▼5

28The Pit0.234▼5

29The Road0.232NEW

30Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

missed: Corduroy, In Memory of Elizabeth Reed, Jazz Wank, The Linear

● played

2026-06-20

67% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called4/13

expected29%

actual13%

called 4 of 13 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Giants0.434—

2Band in the Sky0.366▲4

3Ups and Downs0.352▼1

4Rebubula0.346▲8

5Buster0.340▼2

6Mexico0.330▲4

7Downward Facing Dog0.328▲8

8Seat of My Pants0.306▲1

9Brent Black0.300▲13

10Four0.296▲8

11Ricky Marten0.292▼3

12Tailspin0.288▼1

13Wormwood0.282▲16

14Lazarus0.274NEW

15Yellow Tigers0.274NEW

16Head0.272—

1732 Things0.268▲4

18The Pit0.264▲1

19Wind It Up0.264NEW

20Meat0.260▲8

21Tomorrow Is Another Day0.256▲6

22Moth0.254NEW

23The Road0.250▲1

24Blue Jeans Pizza0.248▼7

25Captain America0.242▼11

26Puebla0.242▼19

27Bat Country0.238NEW

28Billy Goat0.238▼15

29Okayalright0.232NEW

30Crab Eyes0.228—

missed: Carpet Crawlers, It, No Quarter, Shoot First, Spaz Medicine, Stranger Than Fiction, Tambourine, Waiting for the Punchline, hajimeshite

● played

2026-06-21

64% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called6/10

expected27%

actual20%

called 6 of 10 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Giants0.410—

2Ups and Downs0.364▲1

3Yellow Tigers0.344▲16

4Band in the Sky0.320▼2

5Rebubula0.320▲15

6Downward Facing Dog0.316▲3

7Tailspin0.312▼3

8Wormwood0.286▲10

9Puebla0.278▼2

10Moth0.274▲20

11Seat of My Pants0.272▲2

12Blue Jeans Pizza0.264▼4

13Billy Goat0.262▼2

14Captain America0.262▼2

15Meat0.262▲10

16Silver Sun0.262▲5

17Bat Country0.256▲7

18The Pit0.256▲11

19Water0.256NEW

20Lazarus0.252▼5

2132 Things0.248▼11

22Four0.246▲4

23Okayalright0.246▼1

24The Road0.236▼1

25Ricky Marten0.234▼9

26In Stride0.232NEW

27Wind It Up0.226▲1

28Tomorrow Is Another Day0.220▼1

29George0.216NEW

30Big World0.210NEW

missed: Bright Lights Big City, Franklin's Tower, McBain, Opium

● played

2026-06-26

67% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called5/14

expected30%

actual17%

called 5 of 14 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Yellow Tigers0.402▲1

2Bat Country0.388▲3

3In Stride0.382▲14

4Ups and Downs0.376▼1

5Band in the Sky0.366▼1

6Puebla0.358▲3

7Tailspin0.324▲13

8The Pit0.324▲21

9Moth0.318▲14

10Downward Facing Dog0.308▲5

11Billy Goat0.306▼1

12Wormwood0.306▼4

13Okayalright0.292▲11

1432 Things0.290▲5

15Silver Sun0.288▲12

16Meat0.284▼2

17Water0.284▲1

18Seat of My Pants0.274▼5

19Four0.272▲3

20The Road0.270NEW

21Tomorrow Is Another Day0.270▲9

22Hi & Lo0.260NEW

23All Roads Lead to Home0.258NEW

24Head0.250▼17

25Not Coming Down0.250NEW

26Blue Jeans Pizza0.244—

27Mar De Ma0.242▲1

28Wind It Up0.242NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.240NEW

30Timmy Tucker0.240NEW

missed: Buster, Casey Jones, Kyle's Song, Recreational Chemistry, Ricky Marten, Skitchin' Buffalo, Stranger Than Fiction, The Low Spark of High Heeled Boys, Three Eyed Serpent

● played

2026-06-27

64% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called4/13

expected29%

actual13%

called 4 of 13 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1In Stride0.414▲5

2Ups and Downs0.404▼1

3Band in the Sky0.392—

4Bat Country0.392▼2

5Yellow Tigers0.380—

6Downward Facing Dog0.360▲3

7Puebla0.328▼3

8Wormwood0.322▲2

9Moth0.316▼2

10Tailspin0.314▲1

11Seat of My Pants0.312▲8

12Blue Jeans Pizza0.302—

1332 Things0.288▲5

14Head0.288NEW

15Plane Crash0.288▲11

16New Hope for the New Year0.272▲4

17Water0.262▲4

18Tomorrow Is Another Day0.260NEW

19George0.258NEW

20Meat0.252▼3

21Timmy Tucker0.252NEW

22Okayalright0.250▲3

23Mar De Ma0.246▲4

24Bullet0.244▲4

25Not Coming Down0.242▼1

26Tubing the River Styx0.238NEW

27Wind It Up0.238NEW

28Bring You Down0.232NEW

29Haze0.230NEW

30Giants0.228NEW

missed: Brent Black, Can't Find My Way Home, Immigrant Song, In Memory of Elizabeth Reed, Jazz Wank, McBain, Rebubula, Same Old Story, Time Ed

● played

2026-07-04

64% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called6/9

expected26%

actual20%

called 6 of 9 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Ups and Downs0.382▲3

2Band in the Sky0.376—

3Bat Country0.358—

4Wormwood0.342▲5

5Moth0.316▲5

6Downward Facing Dog0.304▲8

7Seat of My Pants0.304—

8Tailspin0.302▼3

9Giants0.294▲18

10Meat0.290▲1

1132 Things0.262▲13

12Blue Jeans Pizza0.262—

13Not Coming Down0.256▲10

14Captain America0.252NEW

15Four0.248▲1

16Okayalright0.248▲1

17Plane Crash0.248▲3

18George0.246▲4

19Water0.246▲2

20Wind It Up0.242▲9

21Happy Hour Hero0.232▼8

22Timmy Tucker0.226▲3

23Head0.218▼8

24Bring You Down0.216NEW

25Tomorrow Is Another Day0.216▼6

26Bullet0.212▲2

27New Hope for the New Year0.212▼9

28Crab Eyes0.210NEW

29Haze0.202NEW

30It0.202NEW

missed: Rebubula, Three Eyed Serpent, Yellow Tigers

● played

2026-07-10

60% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called3/13

expected29%

actual10%

called 3 of 13 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Band in the Sky0.418▲1

2Seat of My Pants0.384▲3

3Moth0.378▲8

4Wormwood0.368▲6

5Giants0.358▲2

6Tailspin0.354▼2

7Buster0.324▲19

832 Things0.318▼2

9Downward Facing Dog0.310▼1

10Meat0.302▼1

11Head0.298▲2

12Blue Jeans Pizza0.296▲10

13Four0.290▼1

14Not Coming Down0.280▲11

15New Hope for the New Year0.270▲12

16Tomorrow Is Another Day0.268▲2

17In Stride0.266NEW

18Silver Sun0.264NEW

19Plane Crash0.262▼5

20Timmy Tucker0.256▼4

21Haze0.254NEW

22It0.254▲6

23Lazarus0.250NEW

24Mexico0.248NEW

25George0.246▼4

26Recreational Chemistry0.246NEW

27Shoot First0.240NEW

28Skrunk0.236NEW

29Letter Home0.232NEW

30Bring You Down0.228▼10

missed: Band Personnel, Billy Goat, Blind Faith cover, Bullet, Can't Find My Way Home, Happy Hour Hero, Immigrant Song, Kyle's Song, Skitchin' Buffalo, Total Run Time

● played

2026-07-12

60% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called5/22

expected34%

actual17%

called 5 of 22 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Band in the Sky0.494—

2In Stride0.448▲20

3Tailspin0.438▲1

4Moth0.436▼2

5Wormwood0.434▲2

6Downward Facing Dog0.426▼1

7Seat of My Pants0.424▼4

8Meat0.404—

932 Things0.390—

10Plane Crash0.340▲4

11Tomorrow Is Another Day0.340▲5

12Recreational Chemistry0.336NEW

13Timmy Tucker0.336▲8

14It0.332▲14

15Blue Jeans Pizza0.328—

16Head0.324▼5

17Yellow Tigers0.320NEW

18Four0.318—

19Not Coming Down0.312▼2

20Water0.312▼8

21George0.308▼11

22New Hope for the New Year0.298▼2

23Mexico0.294NEW

24Bat Country0.284NEW

25Skrunk0.284▲5

26Ricky Marten0.282NEW

27Puebla0.276NEW

28The Pit0.274NEW

29Lazarus0.270▼10

30Sensory Deprivation Bank0.270NEW

missed: Bonus Track, Charltons moe Master Here, Don't Bring Me Down, Light Up or Leave Me Alone, Make America Fuk Again, Mar De Ma, My Umphreys Co-Bill Set Here, Spine of a Dog, Team Dirty South Recording, Three Eyed Serpent, Undone - The Sweater Song, Where Does the Time Go?, co-bill with Umphreys McGee, filler, moe.mentUM Tour, moe/UM Superjam, sound engineer: Steve Young

● played

2026-07-16

60% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called5/13

expected29%

actual17%

called 5 of 13 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Band in the Sky0.408—

2In Stride0.398▲7

3Downward Facing Dog0.376—

4Tailspin0.362▲1

5Wormwood0.362▼1

6Yellow Tigers0.358▲10

7Timmy Tucker0.330▲4

8Giants0.314NEW

932 Things0.306▼1

10Bat Country0.306NEW

11Buster0.296NEW

12Rebubula0.296NEW

13Four0.288▲9

14Ups and Downs0.286NEW

15Puebla0.272▲6

16Tomorrow Is Another Day0.272NEW

17Silver Sun0.264NEW

18Not Coming Down0.260▼5

19Captain America0.258NEW

20Billy Goat0.252NEW

21Haze0.252NEW

22The Pit0.252▲8

23Head0.248▼8

24Okayalright0.248NEW

25Water0.246▼2

26Sensory Deprivation Bank0.242—

27Bring You Down0.238—

28Crab Eyes0.238▲1

29Lazarus0.236▼11

30Wind It Up0.236NEW

missed: Cajun Moon, Carnival Punks, Faker, No Quarter, Shoot First, Tubing the River Styx, Where Does the Time Go?, w Pappy from Cabinet

● played

2026-07-17

60% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called9/17

expected32%

actual30%

called 9 of 17 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Bat Country0.434▲2

2Tailspin0.414▲4

3Giants0.410▲12

4Yellow Tigers0.408▲1

5In Stride0.390▼3

632 Things0.382▲2

7Downward Facing Dog0.382▼3

8Four0.358▲4

9Wormwood0.354▼2

10Buster0.346▼1

11Not Coming Down0.332▲2

12Ups and Downs0.328▼1

13Rebubula0.324▼3

14George0.320▲4

15Water0.308▼1

16Silver Sun0.304▲12

17Timmy Tucker0.302▲4

18Captain America0.292NEW

19Okayalright0.288NEW

20Happy Hour Hero0.286▲7

21Big World0.280▼1

22Tomorrow Is Another Day0.280▲1

23St. Augustine0.276NEW

24Bullet0.270NEW

25Mexico0.268NEW

26Billy Goat0.266▼7

27Hi & Lo0.266NEW

28New Hope for the New Year0.262▼3

29Head0.254▼13

30Brent Black0.250NEW

missed: Blue Jeans Pizza, Carpet Crawlers, Crushing, Immigrant Song, Mar De Ma, McBain, No Hookups...Well Alright, Paranoid Miscue

● played

2026-07-18

67% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called5/11

expected28%

actual17%

called 5 of 11 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Bat Country0.408▲3

2Giants0.376▲8

332 Things0.368▲4

4Wormwood0.368▲5

5Tailspin0.342▼4

6Tomorrow Is Another Day0.310▲17

7Four0.308▲10

8Silver Sun0.304▲5

9Happy Hour Hero0.294▲16

10Not Coming Down0.292▲5

11Timmy Tucker0.290▼5

12Bring You Down0.278NEW

13George0.272▲9

14Billy Goat0.268▲10

15Sensory Deprivation Bank0.266NEW

16Meat0.260NEW

17Seat of My Pants0.254NEW

18Wind It Up0.254▲10

19Bullet0.250▲2

20Crab Eyes0.244▼4

21Head0.240▲6

22Old Things0.240NEW

23Hi & Lo0.236▲7

24It0.236NEW

25Mexico0.232▼5

26Brent Black0.230NEW

27Letter Home0.230NEW

28St. Augustine0.230▼2

29Kyle's Song0.224—

30Okayalright0.224NEW

missed: All Roads Lead to Home, Emma/Raffle Drawing, Mayor of moe.down vote, Plane Crash, Technical Adjustments/Home Sweet Home singalong, The Weight

● played

2026-07-31

67% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called6/15

expected30%

actual20%

called 6 of 15 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Bat Country0.446▲2

2Tailspin0.422▲3

332 Things0.416▼2

4Wormwood0.408—

5Giants0.394▼3

6Timmy Tucker0.346—

7Not Coming Down0.338—

8George0.318▲1

9Moth0.304▲19

10Four0.298▲2

11Silver Sun0.294▲3

12Band in the Sky0.292NEW

13St. Augustine0.290▲5

14Seat of My Pants0.288▲13

15Yellow Tigers0.286NEW

16Brent Black0.284▲6

17Tomorrow Is Another Day0.282▼7

18Hi & Lo0.278▲5

19Big World0.276▲11

20Bring You Down0.272NEW

21Crab Eyes0.272—

22Recreational Chemistry0.270NEW

23Bullet0.268▼8

24Buster0.266NEW

25Letter Home0.262NEW

26In Stride0.258NEW

27Head0.252▼10

28It0.252NEW

29Puebla0.240NEW

30Sensory Deprivation Bank0.240▼4

missed: Deep This Time, Down Boy, Lazarus, Meat, Paranoid, The Pit, Three Eyed Serpent, Time Ed, Where Does the Time Go?

● played

2026-08-01

46% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called6/14

expected30%

actual20%

called 6 of 14 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Giants0.410▲3

232 Things0.382▲1

3Wormwood0.380▲3

4Timmy Tucker0.368▲1

5Yellow Tigers0.368▲13

6In Stride0.362▲22

7Not Coming Down0.336—

8Bring You Down0.324▲14

9Moth0.324▲14

10Rebubula0.304NEW

11Band in the Sky0.298▲5

12Tomorrow Is Another Day0.294▲3

13Buster0.290▲16

14Four0.290▼2

15Silver Sun0.286▼2

16Seat of My Pants0.282▲8

17Sensory Deprivation Bank0.280NEW

18St. Augustine0.280▼10

19Okayalright0.276▲11

20Downward Facing Dog0.274NEW

21Crab Eyes0.264▼10

22Head0.264▲3

23Blue Jeans Pizza0.258NEW

24Recreational Chemistry0.254▼3

25Kyle's Song0.252▼5

26Water0.252NEW

27Ups and Downs0.250NEW

28Captain America0.248NEW

29Big World0.246NEW

30Ricky Marten0.246NEW

missed: Bullet, Calyphornya, Living Again, No Rain, Old Things, Opium, Skrunk, The Ghost of Ralph's Mom

◯ upcoming

2026-08-12

Frederik Meijer Gardens Amphitheater · Grand Rapids, MI

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-08-13

Everwise Amphitheater at White River State Park · Indianapolis, IN

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-08-14

Evans Amphitheater – Cain Park · Cleveland Heights, OH

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-08-15

Ravinia Festival · Highland Park, IL

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-08-19

Knuckleheads Saloon · Kansas City, MO

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-08-20

The Waiting Room Lounge · Omaha, NE

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-08-21

The Mishawaka · Bellvue, CO

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-08-22

The Mishawaka · Bellvue, CO

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-09-04

Adirondack Music Festival · Lake George, NY

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-10-15

Harrah's Lake Tahoe · Stateline, NV

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-10-16

The Regency Ballroom · San Francisco, CA

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-10-17

The Bellwether · Los Angeles, CA

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-10-18

Belly Up Tavern · Solana Beach, CA

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-10-30

The Wilbur · Boston, MA

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-10-31

The Wilbur · Boston, MA

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2027-01-17

Gov't Mule's Island Exodus · Montego Bay, Jamaica

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

◯ upcoming

2027-02-04

Jam Cruise 23 · Miami, FL

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Giants0.392—

2In Stride0.370▲13

332 Things0.350▲2

4Yellow Tigers0.338▼1

5Wormwood0.332▼1

6Band in the Sky0.330▲14

7Buster0.330▲1

8Rebubula0.290▲1

9Tomorrow Is Another Day0.286▲4

10St. Augustine0.272▲13

11Recreational Chemistry0.270▲1

12Crab Eyes0.266▲6

13Ups and Downs0.266▲3

14Sensory Deprivation Bank0.262▲12

15Silver Sun0.262▼4

16Moth0.254▲8

17Seat of My Pants0.254▼7

18Blue Jeans Pizza0.250▲10

19Mar De Ma0.250NEW

20Not Coming Down0.244▼14

21Hi & Lo0.242▼4

22Okayalright0.242▼1

23Water0.238▲6

24Captain America0.236▲1

25Downward Facing Dog0.234▼6

26Bring You Down0.232NEW

27Billy Goat0.226NEW

28Happy Hour Hero0.222NEW

29New Hope for the New Year0.220NEW

30Bat Country0.214NEW

What is not here. The order of a set is never scored — hitting a running order is close to impossible, and a metric nobody can move is a metric that gets quoted anyway. Only the shortlist and its confidences are graded. The one thing the model is told about a SCORED night is how many songs were played, which is a lookahead of exactly one integer — and the forecast cards are the case that has no such number, so they draw the configured set length instead. That makes them the harder prediction, and it is why they are never averaged into the numbers above.