beta — not linked from anywhere

The Scorecard

30 guesses a night, 12 times over, scored.

Every number on this page was measured when it was built, against the 708-show Phish corpus running through 2026-07-24. Nothing is carried over from a previous run.

What this is

The model picks the 30 songs it thinks are most likely for a night, and it picks them 12 separate times — once from each of the 12 shows before it, working forward. Every one of those vantage points is strictly earlier than the night being guessed at. So the page answers two questions at once: how many of the guesses landed, and whether the model knew early or worked it out at the last minute.

Where the boundary is. Everything scored on this page has already happened, and each night was predicted only from shows dated strictly before it — so the boundary is not a line anyone drew on a chart, it is the rule the whole walk obeys. Past the last show the corpus holds there are 12 announced nights that have not been played. Those are forecasts. Nothing grades them, they are counted in none of the numbers above, and they are a harder guess than any scored night beside them: a scored night tells the model how many songs to draw, and an unplayed one cannot.

How it did

songs picked a night30the shortlist, 12 times over per night

nights scored1152024-02-21 onward

of the set, called40%817 of the 2060 songs actually played

calibration0.76817 hits against 1079 forecast

guesses made1,380115 nights × up to 12 vantage points

Every night, scored

Orange is how much of each set the model named. Violet and teal are the point of the chart: violet is the hit rate the confidences forecast, teal is the rate that landed. Where violet rides above teal, the odds ran hot.

share of the set we namedhit rate we forecasthit rate that landedhover a night for its numbers · click to open its card

Across these 115 nights the model called 817 of 2060 songs played, and its own confidences claimed 1079. That is a calibration of 0.76 — it overstates itself by about 24%. The accuracy line is deliberately low and restless. A model marching toward 100% here would be a model that had learned the answers rather than the band.

How much better than chance

A hit rate on its own means nothing — it only means something next to what it is being compared against. So here are three things to compare it to, from the easiest to beat to the hardest.

active repertoire	pool	blind chance	always the hits	the model	vs chance	vs the hits	skill
played in the last 2 years	275	10.4%	28.7%	39.7%	3.81×	1.38×	15.3%
played in the last 3 years	308	9.4%	29.2%	39.7%	4.24×	1.36×	14.8%
played in the last 5 years	353	8.3%	29.8%	39.7%	4.77×	1.33×	14.1%

The honest number is the second-to-last column, not the sixth. Beating a blind draw by 3.8–4.8× sounds impressive and is close to meaningless: a blind draw assumes every song is equally likely, and the gap between it and simply naming the most-played songs is the measure of how wrong that assumption is. The comparison that costs something is against always guess the hits, and there the model is worth 1.33–1.38×. Put another way, it recovers 14%–15% of the songs that baseline missed.

Whether a song counts as still being in the rotation has no correct answer, and it pushes the two comparisons opposite ways — a wider repertoire makes a blind draw look worse while giving the hits-only baseline more to work with. That is why all three spans are above rather than the flattering one.

Yes, a random guess could theoretically nail a whole show. The biggest set in this window was 2024-12-31, 29 songs, drawn from a repertoire of 282. The chance that 30 random picks contain every one of them is about 1.0 × 10^-38 — once in 1.4 × 10³⁶ years at 70 shows a year, which is something like 9.9 × 10²⁵ times the age of the universe. Possible. Not a rival.

What the sigma count is worth. The model sits 53 standard deviations above blind drawing, which settles the question of coincidence and settles nothing else. With two thousand songs on the line, statistical significance is free; every number worth arguing about is in the table.

Scoring the confidences, not just the names

A hit count throws away half of what the model publishes: every pick carries a stated probability. Scored as probabilities across all 31,752 song-nights in the repertoire, against a baseline that just states each song’s long-run rate. Lower Brier is better; skill is the share of the baseline’s error removed.

	Brier	skill vs long-run rates	reliability calibration · lower better	resolution tells nights apart · higher better
the shortlist, read literally unlisted songs = will not happen	0.0589	-1.7%	0.0025	0.0041
the same ranking, backed off unlisted songs = their usual rate	0.0575	+0.6%	0.0015	0.0042
long-run rates alone nobody’s model	0.0579	—	0.0001	0.0023

The ranking earns its place; the truncation is what costs. Read literally, the shortlist scores -1.7% against doing nothing — worse. Let the same ranking fall back to each song’s usual rate instead of to zero and it scores +0.6%. Nothing about the model changed between those two rows; the only difference is whether cutting the list at 30 is treated as a prediction that nothing else can happen. It is not, and the strict row is the price of pretending otherwise.

Reliability and resolution are different failures, and only this split tells them apart. A forecast giving every song the same probability every night would be near-perfectly calibrated and completely useless — resolution is the column that catches it, and it is precisely what a calibration ratio cannot see. The model’s resolution of 0.0042 against the baseline’s 0.0023 is the part that says it distinguishes one night from another at all.

How much the list moved

Each night was guessed at 12 times. This is how far the shortlist moved at each of those vantage points, plotted on the date the guess was made. One show is a vantage point for several nights after it, so each point averages every night that looked back to it and the shading is their spread. Click a date to open that night in the board below.

average turnover at that syncshaded: the spread across the nights that sync looked ahead to · dashed: 48% overall

The list never stops moving. 0 of 115 nights had settled before their last guess: on the rest, every additional show changed the membership of the top 30. Turnover between consecutive guesses averages 48%. And it is not confined to the tail. The rank-weighted distance between the last two guesses is 0.53, near enough the same number, so the movement reaches the ranks the model is most confident about rather than churning harmlessly at the bottom.

The last 20 nights, one column each, plus the 12 still to come

The final shortlist for each night, with the songs that actually played picked out in teal and the ones it never named listed at the foot of the card. Scrolls sideways, and opens on the seam between what has been played and what has not. The 12 violet cards on the right have not happened yet: those are forecasts, with nothing to grade them against.

● played

2026-04-18

50% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called6/16

expected30%

actual20%

called 6 of 16 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Chalk Dust Torture0.380▲2

2Possum0.374—

3Sand0.370▼2

4Ghost0.362—

546 Days0.352—

6The Moma Dance0.332—

7First Tube0.330—

8Twist0.330▲1

9Tweezer0.328▼1

10Back on the Train0.320▲6

11Character Zero0.314▼1

12What's Going Through Your Mind0.314▼1

13Life Saving Gun0.298NEW

14Tweezer Reprise0.298▲6

15Bathtub Gin0.294—

16David Bowie0.290NEW

17Slave to the Traffic Light0.286NEW

18Blaze On0.282▲12

19Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.282NEW

20Stash0.282▲4

21Fuego0.280▼9

22Oblivion0.280▲4

23Kill Devil Falls0.274▼1

24Harry Hood0.270NEW

25Maze0.270▼6

26A Life Beyond The Dream0.268NEW

27A Wave of Hope0.264▲1

28Wolfman's Brother0.260NEW

29Sigma Oasis0.258▼15

30Piper0.254▼9

missed: AC/DC Bag, Buried Alive, Colonel Forbin's Ascent, Fly Famous Mockingbird, I Am the Walrus, Reba, Run Like an Antelope, Simple, Walk Away, Waste

● played

2026-04-23

64% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called6/18

expected32%

actual20%

called 6 of 18 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Possum0.412—

2Ghost0.394—

3Chalk Dust Torture0.392▲1

4Harry Hood0.390▲24

5Sand0.386▲1

646 Days0.378▼1

7The Moma Dance0.364▼4

8Everything's Right0.352NEW

9What's Going Through Your Mind0.350▲14

10Also Sprach Zarathustra0.342NEW

11Character Zero0.328▼1

12Blaze On0.310▲1

13Back on the Train0.308▲4

14A Life Beyond The Dream0.306▲10

15Fuego0.306▼1

16Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.306▲4

17First Tube0.300▼8

18A Wave of Hope0.298—

19Evolve0.296NEW

20Life Saving Gun0.286▼1

21Stash0.284▼14

22Down with Disease0.280NEW

23My Friend, My Friend0.270NEW

24Ruby Waves0.270▲1

25Piper0.268▲2

26Golden Age0.266NEW

27Maze0.266▲2

28Carini0.262NEW

29Kill Devil Falls0.262NEW

30Theme from the Bottom0.260NEW

missed: Backwards Down the Number Line, Brian and Robert, Cavern, Dark Puddle, Esther, Fee, Gumbo, Guyute, Moonage Daydream, More, The Curtain With, Tube

● played

2026-04-24

70% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called4/18

expected32%

actual13%

called 4 of 18 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Harry Hood0.400▲3

2Chalk Dust Torture0.392▲1

3Everything's Right0.388▲5

4Sand0.386▲1

5Ghost0.384▼3

6The Moma Dance0.380▲1

7Also Sprach Zarathustra0.368▲3

8Character Zero0.368▲3

9A Wave of Hope0.344▲9

10What's Going Through Your Mind0.340▼1

11Wolfman's Brother0.332NEW

12Evolve0.320▲7

13Slave to the Traffic Light0.318NEW

14Free0.312NEW

15Mike's Song0.310NEW

16Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.302—

17Down with Disease0.298▲5

18Carini0.294▲10

19Kill Devil Falls0.288▲10

20Life Saving Gun0.288—

21Split Open and Melt0.288NEW

22Back on the Train0.286▼9

23First Tube0.284▼6

24Light0.278NEW

25Theme from the Bottom0.278▲5

26You Enjoy Myself0.274NEW

27A Life Beyond The Dream0.270▼13

28Bouncing Around the Room0.270NEW

29No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

30Blaze On0.264▼18

missed: Billy Breathes, It's Ice, Monsters, Pebbles and Marbles, Piper, Roggae, Set Your Soul Free, The Dogs, The Lizards, The Man Who Stepped Into Yesterday, Vultures, Walls of the Cave, What's the Use?, Ya Mar

● played

2026-04-25

67% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called5/17

expected31%

actual17%

called 5 of 17 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Harry Hood0.398—

2Chalk Dust Torture0.390▲1

3Everything's Right0.388▲3

4Wolfman's Brother0.370▲5

5Sand0.368—

6The Moma Dance0.366▼4

7Ghost0.346▲1

8Character Zero0.342▼4

9Free0.342▲13

10Blaze On0.328▲4

11Also Sprach Zarathustra0.314▲2

12A Wave of Hope0.312▼5

13Carini0.312▲16

14Down with Disease0.312▲2

15Light0.310▲8

16Weekapaug Groove0.306NEW

17First Tube0.302▼6

18Kill Devil Falls0.300▼1

19Mike's Song0.298▲8

20Bathtub Gin0.288NEW

21Back on the Train0.284▼6

22Rift0.284NEW

23Theme from the Bottom0.278▼5

24My Friend, My Friend0.274—

25Tweezer Reprise0.274NEW

26You Enjoy Myself0.270NEW

27Oblivion0.266NEW

28Sigma Oasis0.264NEW

29Hey Stranger0.260NEW

30David Bowie0.258▼2

missed: About to Run, Axilla (Part II), Bug, Cities, Halley's Comet, Horn, Mercury, My Soul, The Final Hurrah, The Well, Timber (Jerry the Mule), Waves

● played

2026-04-30

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called1/17

expected31%

actual3%

called 1 of 17 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Carini0.380▲12

2Harry Hood0.380▼1

3Character Zero0.374▲5

4Everything's Right0.360▼1

5Also Sprach Zarathustra0.346▲6

6Sand0.338▼1

7Wolfman's Brother0.336▼3

8Bathtub Gin0.332▲12

9Light0.330▲6

10Weekapaug Groove0.328▲6

11Back on the Train0.324▲10

12No Men In No Man's Land0.310NEW

13Tweezer0.308NEW

14Free0.302▼5

15Tweezer Reprise0.302▲10

16Evolve0.288NEW

17Down with Disease0.286▼3

18Kill Devil Falls0.284—

19Mike's Song0.284—

20You Enjoy Myself0.284▲6

21AC/DC Bag0.280NEW

22Sigma Oasis0.276▲6

23Oblivion0.272▲4

24Theme from the Bottom0.272▼1

25A Wave of Hope0.270▼13

26Fuego0.270NEW

27Possum0.264NEW

28Stash0.260NEW

2946 Days0.258NEW

30Divided Sky0.258NEW

missed: 555, A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing, Dirt, Drift While You're Sleeping, Golgi Apparatus, Halfway to the Moon, Leaves, Lonely Trip, NICU, Prince Caspian, Punch You in the Eye, Runaway Jim, Sneakin' Sally Thru the Alley, The Sloth, The Squirming Coil, The Wedge

● played

2026-05-01

70% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called1/21

expected32%

actual3%

called 1 of 21 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Harry Hood0.414—

2Everything's Right0.412—

3Carini0.386▲1

4Character Zero0.386▲3

5Sand0.386—

6Wolfman's Brother0.384—

7Also Sprach Zarathustra0.380▼4

8Free0.330▲7

9Possum0.324▲13

10Sigma Oasis0.324▲17

11Stash0.322▲1

12Tweezer0.322▲14

13Weekapaug Groove0.316▲7

14Bathtub Gin0.312▲3

15Down with Disease0.308▼1

16No Men In No Man's Land0.308▼7

17Evolve0.306▲6

18Oblivion0.306▲1

19Kill Devil Falls0.304▲2

20Tweezer Reprise0.302▼9

21Mike's Song0.300▼5

22Fuego0.298NEW

23Run Like an Antelope0.294▲1

24Light0.290▼16

25You Enjoy Myself0.288▲3

26Back on the Train0.286▼13

27Golden Age0.280NEW

28Twist0.280▼10

29A Life Beyond The Dream0.272NEW

30Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.272NEW

missed: Boogie On Reggae Woman, Bouncing Around the Room, Crosseyed and Painless, David Bowie, Heavy Things, I Didn't Know, McGrupp and the Watchful Hosemasters, Mound, Mountains in the Mist, Pillow Jets, Plasma, Rock and Roll, Sample in a Jar, Saw It Again, Seven Below, Shade, Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan, Tela, Wilson, Wingsuit

● played

2026-05-02

64% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called4/19

expected31%

actual13%

called 4 of 19 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Harry Hood0.420—

2Carini0.390▲3

3Also Sprach Zarathustra0.376▼1

4Character Zero0.376—

5Down with Disease0.354▲8

6Everything's Right0.352▼3

7Wolfman's Brother0.340—

8Weekapaug Groove0.328▲11

9Light0.322▲5

10Tweezer0.322▲7

11Free0.306▼2

12Possum0.302▲11

13Stash0.300▲11

14Kill Devil Falls0.296▼2

15Back on the Train0.294NEW

16Evolve0.294▼5

17Sigma Oasis0.294▼2

18What's Going Through Your Mind0.294NEW

19Bathtub Gin0.288▼11

20First Tube0.286NEW

21Fuego0.286▲1

22Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.286NEW

23Tweezer Reprise0.286▲6

24No Men In No Man's Land0.284▼14

25Oblivion0.284▼7

26Chalk Dust Torture0.282NEW

27Fluffhead0.280NEW

28Ghost0.278NEW

29Run Like an Antelope0.278▼13

30Theme from the Bottom0.274NEW

missed: A Life Beyond The Dream, Ether Edge, Farmhouse, Frankenstein, Julius, Llama, Meatstick, My Friend, My Friend, Ocelot, Ruby Waves, Silent in the Morning, Taste, The Horse, Undermind, Wading in the Velvet Sea

● played

2026-07-07

50% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called8/18

expected32%

actual27%

called 8 of 18 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Harry Hood0.432▲1

2Everything's Right0.384▲2

3Down with Disease0.382▲11

4Also Sprach Zarathustra0.370▲1

5Wolfman's Brother0.368▲1

6Carini0.354▼5

7Light0.340▲11

8Free0.330▲2

9Weekapaug Groove0.326▼2

10Ghost0.318▲15

11Possum0.312▼3

12Chalk Dust Torture0.308▲11

13First Tube0.308NEW

14Stash0.306▲8

15Tweezer Reprise0.306▼3

16Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.304▼5

17Evolve0.300▼1

18You Enjoy Myself0.300NEW

19Bathtub Gin0.298▼6

20Tweezer0.298▲9

21What's Going Through Your Mind0.292▲6

22Twist0.288▲2

23Backwards Down the Number Line0.286NEW

24Mike's Song0.286NEW

25Run Like an Antelope0.280▼5

26No Men In No Man's Land0.278▼11

27Sigma Oasis0.278▼8

28Life Saving Gun0.276NEW

29Theme from the Bottom0.276▲1

30Blaze On0.274NEW

missed: A Wave of Hope, Avenu Malkenu, Back on the Train, Character Zero, Fuego, Ruby Waves, Sand, Slave to the Traffic Light, Suzy Greenberg, The Man Who Stepped Into Yesterday

● played

2026-07-08

60% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called7/16

expected32%

actual23%

called 7 of 16 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Wolfman's Brother0.436▲2

2Harry Hood0.428▼1

3Everything's Right0.400▼1

4Also Sprach Zarathustra0.394—

5Carini0.376—

6Down with Disease0.364—

7No Men In No Man's Land0.354▲2

8Light0.352▲15

9Tweezer0.350▲13

10Twist0.336▲2

1146 Days0.326NEW

12Evolve0.322▲2

13Blaze On0.320▲5

14Bathtub Gin0.314▼3

15What's Going Through Your Mind0.314NEW

16Theme from the Bottom0.310NEW

17Tweezer Reprise0.310▼1

18First Tube0.308▲7

19Sigma Oasis0.302▲10

20You Enjoy Myself0.302▲1

21Stash0.292▼1

22Reba0.290NEW

23Oblivion0.286NEW

24Rift0.286NEW

25Possum0.272▼1

26Roggae0.266NEW

27The Moma Dance0.264▼12

28Backwards Down the Number Line0.258▲2

29Golden Age0.254▼21

30Most Events Aren't Planned0.248NEW

missed: Cavern, Cities, Julius, Kill Devil Falls, Leaves, Monsters, Prince Caspian, Runaway Jim, Waste

● played

2026-07-10

70% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called10/15

expected30%

actual33%

called 10 of 15 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Everything's Right0.430▲3

2Carini0.420▲3

3Down with Disease0.412▲4

4Also Sprach Zarathustra0.398▼2

5Wolfman's Brother0.382▼2

6Bathtub Gin0.364▲18

7What's Going Through Your Mind0.340▲11

846 Days0.336▲3

9Light0.330▼3

10Stash0.322▲4

11Blaze On0.320▲8

12Tweezer0.318▼3

13You Enjoy Myself0.318▲7

14Evolve0.306▲7

15Piper0.296NEW

16Oblivion0.292—

17Tweezer Reprise0.288▼7

18Theme from the Bottom0.278▲5

19Golden Age0.272▲10

20Backwards Down the Number Line0.270▲7

21AC/DC Bag0.260▲7

22Roggae0.256▲3

23Tube0.250▲3

24Split Open and Melt0.248NEW

25More0.246NEW

26My Friend, My Friend0.238NEW

27A Wave of Hope0.230NEW

28Chalk Dust Torture0.230NEW

29Sand0.228NEW

30Hey Stranger0.224—

missed: Bouncing Around the Room, Limb By Limb, Loving Cup, Plasma, Rocky Top

● played

2026-07-11

60% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called7/16

expected31%

actual23%

called 7 of 16 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Also Sprach Zarathustra0.418▲3

2Everything's Right0.390▼1

3Light0.382▲4

4Bathtub Gin0.380▲2

5Carini0.378▼3

6Tweezer0.364▲12

7Tweezer Reprise0.352▲6

846 Days0.336▲6

9Sand0.332NEW

10Ghost0.328NEW

11Chalk Dust Torture0.314▲19

12Mike's Song0.308NEW

13Theme from the Bottom0.308▲4

14Stash0.306▼2

15Weekapaug Groove0.304▲14

16Rift0.296NEW

17Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.294NEW

18Back on the Train0.290NEW

19Fuego0.290NEW

20My Friend, My Friend0.290▲3

21Golden Age0.282▲4

22A Wave of Hope0.274NEW

23Free0.274NEW

24Character Zero0.272NEW

25Split Open and Melt0.270NEW

26Run Like an Antelope0.264NEW

27Slave to the Traffic Light0.258NEW

28Evolve0.254▼12

29Ruby Waves0.254NEW

30Piper0.252▼11

missed: 555, A Life Beyond The Dream, AC/DC Bag, Dirt, Most Events Aren't Planned, No Quarter, Punch You in the Eye, Reba, Timber (Jerry the Mule)

● played

2026-07-12

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called7/15

expected30%

actual23%

called 7 of 15 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Chalk Dust Torture0.390▲11

2Also Sprach Zarathustra0.370▼1

3Light0.370▼1

4Bathtub Gin0.366▲1

5Ghost0.366▲8

6Weekapaug Groove0.344▲8

7Sand0.342▲4

8Stash0.334▲10

9Evolve0.328▲16

10Slave to the Traffic Light0.328▲10

11Character Zero0.314▼1

12Fuego0.310▲4

13The Moma Dance0.306NEW

14A Wave of Hope0.302▲1

15Run Like an Antelope0.300▲9

16Free0.294▲12

17Mike's Song0.286NEW

18Possum0.286NEW

19Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.286▲3

2046 Days0.282▼12

21Harry Hood0.276▲5

22Back on the Train0.270▲1

23First Tube0.270NEW

24Fluffhead0.270NEW

25Life Saving Gun0.266▼6

26Split Open and Melt0.264▼9

27Ruby Waves0.262▲2

28No Men In No Man's Land0.254NEW

29Twist0.250NEW

30Kill Devil Falls0.248NEW

missed: Cream, Maze, More, Mountains in the Mist, Pillow Jets, Rift, Simple, Wilson

● played

2026-07-14

50% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called2/15

expected30%

actual7%

called 2 of 15 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Character Zero0.370▲10

2Ghost0.366▲3

3Sand0.366▲4

4Harry Hood0.342▲17

5A Wave of Hope0.338▲9

6First Tube0.330▲17

7The Moma Dance0.330▲6

8Chalk Dust Torture0.324▼7

9Run Like an Antelope0.322▲6

10Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.316▲9

11Weekapaug Groove0.316▼5

12Blaze On0.312NEW

13Back on the Train0.308▲9

14Life Saving Gun0.306▲11

15Mike's Song0.302▲2

16Twist0.292▲13

17Wolfman's Brother0.286NEW

18Sigma Oasis0.284NEW

19Ruby Waves0.282▲8

20Fuego0.280▼8

21Free0.278▼5

22What's Going Through Your Mind0.278NEW

23Backwards Down the Number Line0.272NEW

24Oblivion0.264NEW

25Piper0.264NEW

26Possum0.262▼8

27Kill Devil Falls0.260▲3

28Slave to the Traffic Light0.258▼18

29You Enjoy Myself0.252NEW

30No Men In No Man's Land0.250▼2

missed: About to Run, Birds of a Feather, David Bowie, Fire, Gumbo, Horn, It's Ice, Split Open and Melt, Steam, The Curtain With, The Old Home Place, The Squirming Coil, Walls of the Cave

● played

2026-07-15

42% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called1/15

expected29%

actual3%

called 1 of 15 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Ghost0.346▲1

2Harry Hood0.340▲2

3Character Zero0.334▼2

4Wolfman's Brother0.334▲13

5The Moma Dance0.332▲2

6Chalk Dust Torture0.324▲2

7First Tube0.318▼1

8Run Like an Antelope0.318▲1

9Possum0.308▲17

10Mike's Song0.304▲5

11Back on the Train0.300▲2

12Life Saving Gun0.294▲2

13Everything's Right0.292NEW

14No Men In No Man's Land0.290▲16

15Fuego0.286▲5

16Tweezer Reprise0.280NEW

17What's Going Through Your Mind0.280▲5

18A Life Beyond The Dream0.276NEW

19A Wave of Hope0.276▼14

20Carini0.272NEW

21Down with Disease0.272NEW

22Ruby Waves0.272▼3

23Blaze On0.270▼11

24Twist0.270▼8

25Slave to the Traffic Light0.266▲3

26Golden Age0.264NEW

27Oblivion0.264▼3

28Free0.262▼7

29Weekapaug Groove0.262▼18

30Kill Devil Falls0.258▼3

missed: A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing, Crosseyed and Painless, Dinner and a Movie, Divided Sky, Drift While You're Sleeping, Farmhouse, Halley's Comet, Pebbles and Marbles, Rock and Roll, Scents and Subtle Sounds, Sightless Escape, Taste, The Wedge, Vultures

● played

2026-07-17

50% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called4/16

expected29%

actual13%

called 4 of 16 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Harry Hood0.348▲1

2Character Zero0.326▲7

3Chalk Dust Torture0.324▲2

4Free0.324▲13

5Run Like an Antelope0.322▲7

6Life Saving Gun0.314▲15

7Stash0.314NEW

8Fuego0.312▼1

9The Moma Dance0.310▼6

10Slave to the Traffic Light0.308▼2

11Wolfman's Brother0.308▼5

12Weekapaug Groove0.306NEW

13A Wave of Hope0.304—

14Carini0.298▲10

15Mike's Song0.294▲13

16My Friend, My Friend0.286NEW

17No Men In No Man's Land0.284▼6

18Back on the Train0.282▼8

19Blaze On0.276▲3

20Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.276▲7

21Everything's Right0.268▼5

22Possum0.268▼3

23What's Going Through Your Mind0.268NEW

24Tweezer Reprise0.266NEW

25Down with Disease0.264▲5

26Sigma Oasis0.264▼3

27Kill Devil Falls0.260▼9

28Light0.260NEW

29Evolve0.258NEW

30Oblivion0.258▼10

missed: Buried Alive, Destiny Unbound, Fee, Golgi Apparatus, Guyute, Izabella, Llama, Meatstick, Mercury, Sample in a Jar, The Lizards, The Mango Song

● played

2026-07-18

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called4/17

expected30%

actual13%

called 4 of 17 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Chalk Dust Torture0.350▲1

2Possum0.350▲15

3Mike's Song0.342▲7

4The Moma Dance0.334▲8

5What's Going Through Your Mind0.320▲14

6Stash0.312NEW

7Carini0.310▼2

8Run Like an Antelope0.310▲5

9Weekapaug Groove0.308▼8

10Slave to the Traffic Light0.306▲1

11First Tube0.300▲17

12Tweezer Reprise0.300NEW

13Wolfman's Brother0.300▼7

14Down with Disease0.298▼5

15Back on the Train0.294▲5

16Everything's Right0.292▼9

17Free0.288▼3

18No Men In No Man's Land0.288NEW

19Twist0.288▲4

20Also Sprach Zarathustra0.280▲6

21Sand0.280NEW

22Kill Devil Falls0.274NEW

23Light0.272NEW

24Life Saving Gun0.270—

25Bathtub Gin0.268▲4

26Blaze On0.268▼1

27Tube0.268▼5

28Reba0.266NEW

2946 Days0.264NEW

30Bouncing Around the Room0.264▼12

missed: Axilla (Part II), Boogie On Reggae Woman, Contact, Ether Edge, Gotta Jibboo, Have Mercy, If I Could, Lifeboy, McGrupp and the Watchful Hosemasters, Monsters, Runaway Jim, Shade, You Enjoy Myself

● played

2026-07-19

46% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called8/15

expected29%

actual27%

called 8 of 15 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Chalk Dust Torture0.348▲1

2Possum0.348▼1

3Weekapaug Groove0.340▲1

4Slave to the Traffic Light0.338▲4

5Mike's Song0.332—

6Also Sprach Zarathustra0.322NEW

7Wolfman's Brother0.320▼1

8The Moma Dance0.312▼5

9First Tube0.302▲8

10Carini0.296▲1

11Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.296▲9

12Sand0.294▲2

13Backwards Down the Number Line0.292▲15

14Blaze On0.290▲4

15Down with Disease0.290▲12

16Theme from the Bottom0.288NEW

17Oblivion0.286NEW

18Stash0.284▼11

19Back on the Train0.280▼10

20Bathtub Gin0.274NEW

21No Men In No Man's Land0.274▼11

22Sigma Oasis0.272▼10

23Reba0.268NEW

24Kill Devil Falls0.266NEW

25My Friend, My Friend0.266▼1

26Tweezer0.264▲3

27Tweezer Reprise0.262▲3

28Twist0.258NEW

29Golden Age0.256NEW

30Evolve0.254▼9

missed: Ass Handed, Beneath a Sea of Stars Part 1, Fast Enough for You, I Am the Walrus, NICU, Ruby Waves, Undermind

● played

2026-07-21

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called7/16

expected30%

actual23%

called 7 of 16 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Chalk Dust Torture0.370—

2Slave to the Traffic Light0.364▲2

3Mike's Song0.354▼1

4Wolfman's Brother0.350▼1

5Sand0.344▲5

6Weekapaug Groove0.344▼1

7Ghost0.338▲17

8Down with Disease0.330▲6

9Kill Devil Falls0.330NEW

10Sigma Oasis0.330▲7

11Harry Hood0.326NEW

12Blaze On0.322▲4

13A Wave of Hope0.312NEW

14Twist0.296▲13

15Everything's Right0.290NEW

16Stash0.290▼3

17Tweezer Reprise0.284▲8

18Fuego0.282NEW

19Character Zero0.280NEW

20My Friend, My Friend0.280NEW

21Fluffhead0.278▲9

22Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.278▲1

23Also Sprach Zarathustra0.276▼11

24Bathtub Gin0.276NEW

25Hey Stranger0.276NEW

26Tweezer0.276▼7

27Evolve0.270▼6

2846 Days0.260—

29Golden Age0.256NEW

30Theme from the Bottom0.254▼21

missed: Bug, Light, More, Mull, Ocelot, Prince Caspian, Seven Below, Turtle in the Clouds, What's the Use?

● played

2026-07-22

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called8/26

expected35%

actual27%

called 8 of 26 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Chalk Dust Torture0.482—

2Down with Disease0.432▲22

3Mike's Song0.428▲5

4Harry Hood0.418▲2

5Tweezer Reprise0.408▲25

6Character Zero0.402▲7

7Slave to the Traffic Light0.386—

8Weekapaug Groove0.380▼4

9Wolfman's Brother0.378▲3

10A Wave of Hope0.370▲4

11Twist0.352▲4

12A Life Beyond The Dream0.350▲11

13Theme from the Bottom0.342▲16

14Tube0.336▲12

15Fuego0.332NEW

16Free0.330NEW

17My Friend, My Friend0.322▲4

18Tweezer0.320▲1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.318NEW

20Run Like an Antelope0.314NEW

2146 Days0.312▲6

22Bouncing Around the Room0.312NEW

23Golden Age0.312▼1

24Bathtub Gin0.308▲1

25Evolve0.308▼5

26Life Saving Gun0.308NEW

27Stash0.292▼11

28Hey Stranger0.290NEW

29Reba0.290NEW

30Kill Devil Falls0.288▼20

missed: AC/DC Bag, Axilla, Big Black Furry Creature from Mars, Cold as Ice, David Bowie, Foam, Glide, Hold Your Head Up, I Am Hydrogen, Love You, Possum, Runaway Jim, Silent in the Morning, Sparkle, Split Open and Melt, The Horse, The Lizards, The Vibration of Life

● played

2026-07-24

54% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

called4/24

expected34%

actual13%

called 4 of 24 · rates are of the 30-song pool

1Chalk Dust Torture0.478—

2Slave to the Traffic Light0.424—

3Bathtub Gin0.394▲22

4Wolfman's Brother0.388▲5

5Character Zero0.380▲5

6Tweezer Reprise0.378▲6

7Twist0.378—

8A Wave of Hope0.374—

9Down with Disease0.370▼4

10Kill Devil Falls0.370▲14

11First Tube0.346NEW

12The Moma Dance0.342NEW

1346 Days0.340▲14

14Fuego0.340▲8

15A Life Beyond The Dream0.336▼4

16Tweezer0.336—

17Golden Age0.332▲4

18Back on the Train0.328NEW

19Theme from the Bottom0.324▼4

20You Enjoy Myself0.322▲6

21Free0.318▼3

22Life Saving Gun0.312▼5

23What's Going Through Your Mind0.308▼3

24Oblivion0.304NEW

25Carini0.300NEW

26Piper0.280▲3

27No Men In No Man's Land0.278NEW

28Roggae0.276NEW

29Ghost0.272NEW

30Tube0.270▼11

missed: Also Sprach Zarathustra, Big Ball Jam, Daniel Saw the Stone, Divided Sky, Fluffhead, Golgi Apparatus, Good Times Bad Times, Guelah Papyrus, Gumbo, Kung, La Grange, Lengthwise, Llama, Makisupa Policeman, Maze, Sparks, Suzy Greenberg, Sweet Adeline, The Wedge, Weigh

◯ upcoming

2026-07-25

Madison Square Garden · New York, NY

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-07-27

Madison Square Garden · New York, NY

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-07-29

Madison Square Garden · New York, NY

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-07-31

Fenway Park · Boston, MA

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-08-01

Fenway Park · Boston, MA

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-09-04

Dick's Sporting Goods Park · Commerce City, CO

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-09-05

Dick's Sporting Goods Park · Commerce City, CO

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2026-09-06

Dick's Sporting Goods Park · Commerce City, CO

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2027-01-27

Moon Palace · Cancun, Quintana Roo

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2027-01-28

Moon Palace · Cancun, Quintana Roo

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2027-01-29

Moon Palace · Cancun, Quintana Roo

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

◯ upcoming

2027-01-30

Moon Palace · Cancun, Quintana Roo

57% turned over vs our first guess · 12 guesses

expected27%

no set length known yet, so this draws the configured default — a harder guess than any scored night beside it

1Kill Devil Falls0.324▲12

2Wolfman's Brother0.316▲2

3Twist0.308▲2

4Tweezer Reprise0.306▼1

5Down with Disease0.304▲2

6Tweezer0.292▲4

7First Tube0.290▲7

8A Wave of Hope0.288▲8

9Ghost0.276NEW

10Golden Age0.276▲20

11Character Zero0.274▲10

12Carini0.270—

13Free0.268▲9

14No Men In No Man's Land0.266NEW

1546 Days0.264▲3

16The Moma Dance0.264▲13

17A Life Beyond The Dream0.256▲11

18Back on the Train0.256▼1

19What's Going Through Your Mind0.256▼4

20Fuego0.254▼11

21Theme from the Bottom0.252▼1

22You Enjoy Myself0.246▼11

23Oblivion0.244▲1

24Evolve0.242▲1

25Life Saving Gun0.238▼17

26Light0.238NEW

27Backwards Down the Number Line0.234▼4

28Sand0.234NEW

29Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S.0.230NEW

30Blaze On0.228NEW

What is not here. The order of a set is never scored — hitting a running order is close to impossible, and a metric nobody can move is a metric that gets quoted anyway. Only the shortlist and its confidences are graded. The one thing the model is told about a SCORED night is how many songs were played, which is a lookahead of exactly one integer — and the forecast cards are the case that has no such number, so they draw the configured set length instead. That makes them the harder prediction, and it is why they are never averaged into the numbers above.